President says reforms have restored investor confidence, pledges shift to long-term borrowing for roads, power, rail and ports, but insists project delivery and value for money must define next phase of economic recovery.
By Bola Ahmed Tinubu
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has declared that Nigeria is entering a new phase of economic transformation, shifting from stabilisation-focused reforms to large-scale infrastructure investment aimed at building a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
In a policy statement outlining his administration’s infrastructure investment and growth strategy, Tinubu said the removal of petrol subsidies, foreign exchange reforms, tax restructuring and coordinated efforts to tackle inflation had restored macroeconomic stability and strengthened Nigeria’s capacity to attract long-term investment.
He maintained that the next phase of the economic programme would focus on translating the gains from these reforms into productive infrastructure, employment opportunities and sustainable economic growth.
According to the President, Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reached 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, while growth for the first half stood at 4.2 per cent, compared with 2.74 per cent in 2023.
He also cited a decline in headline inflation to 14.63 per cent in September 2026 from 20.98 per cent a year earlier, although food inflation remained elevated at 19.59 per cent.
Tinubu said gross external reserves had risen to $55.1 billion as of October 9, 2026, including approximately $46 billion in net reserves, which he described as an 18-year high.
He added that the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) exchange rate stood at N1,333 to the dollar, with the spread between official and parallel market rates below five per cent.
The President also pointed to improved government revenue, stronger external balances and declining borrowing costs as evidence that the economic reforms were beginning to yield results.
He said federation revenue had quadrupled since 2021, while Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio increased to 12.5 per cent from seven per cent.
Net allocations from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), he added, rose by 44 per cent from N15.2 trillion in 2024 to N21.9 trillion in 2025.
Nigeria also recorded a trade surplus of N20.1 trillion in the first half of 2026, almost double the N10.2 trillion achieved in the corresponding period of 2025.
From economic stabilisation to infrastructure investment
Tinubu said the improvement in the country’s fiscal and external positions had created an opportunity to change the purpose of public borrowing, with greater emphasis on financing productive assets rather than bridging short-term budgetary gaps.
He argued that borrowing should increasingly support infrastructure capable of generating economic returns, expanding government revenue and creating employment over several decades.
“This changes the purpose of public borrowing. The objective is to increasingly direct new borrowing towards productive capital investment, while maintaining fiscal discipline, reducing refinancing pressures and ensuring that public debt translates into measurable economic value,” he said.
According to him, investments in roads, ports, railways and electricity infrastructure would provide the foundation for higher productivity, industrial expansion and long-term economic competitiveness.
“Every Naira and every dollar raised goes to assets that create value, and that value repays the debt. This is how Nigeria will reach the objective of a USD 1 trillion economy by 2030: not through consumption, but through investment in the infrastructure that makes growth possible,” Tinubu said.
He described the strategy as a fundamental shift from borrowing to finance recurrent expenditure and immediate fiscal pressures to borrowing for projects capable of creating lasting economic value.
However, the President acknowledged the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline, noting that public debt stood at 35.75 per cent of GDP in the second quarter of 2026, while debt servicing consumed approximately 65 per cent of government revenue in the first half of the year.
He said the Federal Executive Council’s economic strategy prohibited deficit monetisation and unfunded commitments during the pre-election period.
Lagos-Calabar, Sokoto-Badagry highways headline infrastructure programme
At the centre of the administration’s infrastructure investment strategy are major projects expected to improve connectivity, reduce transportation costs and unlock economic opportunities across the country.
The projects include the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway, Trans-Sahara Superhighway, electricity transmission and distribution improvements, and the modernisation of major commercial ports in Lagos.
The administration is also prioritising the rehabilitation of key hospitals, investment in education and vocational training, and other social infrastructure projects.
Tinubu said the projects would connect economic regions, expand access to markets, unlock agricultural and industrial potential, attract private capital and create hundreds of thousands of direct and indirect jobs.
Providing an update on the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, he said Lot 2 was more than 80 per cent complete as of August 2026, while construction works on the Calabar-Akwa Ibom section had exceeded 30 per cent.
He also cited increased capital spending by state governments as evidence of a broader shift towards infrastructure investment, saying the share of state expenditure devoted to capital projects rose from 46 per cent in 2023 to 61 per cent in 2025.
According to the President, the objective extends beyond constructing roads and bridges to reshaping Nigeria’s economic geography through interconnected transport, power and logistics infrastructure.
Government projects expected to generate jobs and reduce logistics costs
Tinubu said the economic justification for the administration’s legacy projects would be measured by their contribution to productivity, employment, trade and government revenue.
He argued that infrastructure investments must be assessed according to the economic value they generate for every naira spent, particularly their ability to connect production centres with markets, ports with inland communities and Nigeria with neighbouring countries.
The Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, he said, is expected to reduce logistics costs along its corridor by between 15 and 20 per cent and could contribute up to two per cent to GDP through industrial development, trade and tourism.
The project is also projected to generate approximately 100,000 direct jobs in construction and engineering, alongside more than 150,000 indirect employment opportunities in logistics, building materials and related services.
Tinubu said similar economic benefits were expected from the Sokoto-Badagry and Trans-Sahara corridors, as well as investments in electricity infrastructure, railways, ports and social services.
He maintained that improved transportation networks would lower the cost of moving agricultural produce and manufactured goods, strengthen export competitiveness, support industrialisation and improve government revenue.
“Lower transport costs mean lower food prices, more competitive exports and stronger revenue for the State. That is value for money: assets that pay back through growth, jobs and revenue, financed over a horizon that matches their life,” he said.
Tinubu pushes long-term borrowing to finance infrastructure
The President also outlined plans to extend the maturity profile of Nigeria’s public debt, arguing that long-term infrastructure assets should be financed through borrowing arrangements that reflect their economic lifespan.
He said the government was shifting away from short-term financing towards longer and very long-term debt instruments at more competitive interest rates.
According to him, infrastructure expected to serve the country for 40 years should not depend entirely on short-term borrowing that could increase refinancing pressures.
Tinubu said international investors were increasingly willing to commit capital to Nigeria over periods of 10, 15 years and beyond, describing this as an indication of improving confidence in the country’s economic direction.
He also cited the Central Bank of Nigeria’s September 22, 2026, decision to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate by 350 basis points, from 26.5 per cent to 23 per cent, as part of the improving financing environment.
However, he acknowledged that commercial lending rates remained above 30 per cent, reinforcing the need for longer-tenor and more affordable financing to support productive investment.
Credit rating upgrades signal renewed investor confidence
Tinubu said Nigeria’s recent engagements with international financial markets had produced encouraging signals from credit rating agencies, global index providers and financial regulators.
He noted that S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign rating to B on May 15, 2026, with a stable outlook, while Fitch Ratings maintained a B rating with a positive outlook as of October 9, 2026.
Moody’s Investors Service also assigned Nigeria a B3 rating with a positive outlook.
The President said the return of Nigeria to Frontier Market status by FTSE Russell had improved the country’s visibility among international institutional investors.
He also cited Nigeria’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in October 2025 and the European Union’s list in January 2026 as evidence of improvements in financial transparency and regulatory compliance.
Tinubu said the successful issuance of Nigeria’s Eurobonds, which attracted strong international demand, further demonstrated renewed investor appetite for the country’s sovereign debt.
He maintained that these developments could expand access to international capital, improve financing conditions and provide opportunities to secure longer repayment periods for major infrastructure investments.
“These are not political endorsements; they are independent assessments by global rating agencies, index providers, regulators and investors, recognising stronger external reserves, improved macroeconomic management and greater financial credibility,” he said.
Nigeria must convert investor confidence into completed projects
Tinubu said international investors, commercial banks and development finance institutions were increasingly interested in financing infrastructure projects across Nigeria, particularly in roads, railways, electricity, water, agriculture, transportation and social infrastructure.
He argued that the country must take advantage of the improved investment climate by converting international confidence into actual capital expenditure and completed projects.
According to him, the greater economic risk is no longer simply the cost of borrowing but the cost of failing to invest in critical infrastructure.
He warned that delays in infrastructure development would continue to impose higher logistics costs, constrain private investment, limit productivity and deny Nigerians employment opportunities.
The President said the next phase of the Federal Government’s economic programme would be guided by five priorities identified by the Federal Executive Council.
These include food affordability and energy price stability; budget harmonisation and fiscal discipline; completion of high-impact projects and investment in critical infrastructure; a stronger economic policy framework and regulatory efficiency; and targeted household support alongside investment in human development.
He stressed that the success of the economic reforms would ultimately be determined by tangible improvements in the lives of Nigerians rather than policy announcements or macroeconomic indicators alone.
Accountability, delivery and the $1 trillion economy ambition
The President said securing financing for infrastructure projects was only the beginning, insisting that accountability, project completion and measurable economic returns must define the government’s investment programme.
He maintained that every naira borrowed must be justified by the economic value generated, adding that public infrastructure should be assessed by its contribution to productivity, employment, private investment and improved living standards.
“Our ambition is not simply to announce a large infrastructure programme, but to deliver projects that transform Nigeria’s economy. We must pursue our development goals with urgency while maintaining the discipline required for responsible public financial management,” he said.
Tinubu argued that Nigeria could not build a $1 trillion economy with infrastructure designed for an economy only a fraction of that size.
He said the administration was investing in infrastructure intended to support economic expansion over the next 50 years, while ensuring that its financing strategy reflected the long-term nature of the assets.
He added that the country’s development strategy must focus on industrialisation, higher productivity, expanded trade and stronger private-sector participation rather than relying on economic growth declarations.
“We are not borrowing against our children’s future. We must invest responsibly to expand opportunities available to them,” he said.
The President concluded that the difficult economic reforms introduced since 2023 were not undertaken merely to stabilise the economy but to unlock Nigeria’s productive capacity and establish the foundation for lasting prosperity.
“The reforms have opened the door to capital; delivery is what will turn that capital into prosperity,” Tinubu said.