The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has disclosed that a total of 61.9 million barrels of crude oil were allocated to domestic refineries under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting persistent gaps between supply commitments and actual deliveries.
According to the Commission, crude oil producers collectively offered a higher volume of 68.7 million barrels during the period. However, only 28.5 million barrels were ultimately delivered to local refineries, translating to a supply conversion rate of roughly 36–46 percent.
The data underscores ongoing structural and commercial frictions in Nigeria’s domestic crude supply framework, despite regulatory efforts anchored in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.
A month-by-month breakdown shows that in January, the Commission mandated the supply of 22.6 million barrels following consultations with industry stakeholders. Producers exceeded the target, offering 25.3 million barrels—an increase of 11.9 percent—but only 9.2 million barrels were delivered to refiners.
In February, allocations stood at 20.5 million barrels, while producers offered slightly less at 19.8 million barrels, falling short by 700,000 barrels. Actual supply declined marginally to 9.1 million barrels.
March recorded a modest improvement, with deliveries rising to 10.1 million barrels. During the same period, allocations were 18.8 million barrels, while producers significantly exceeded this by offering 23.6 million barrels—25.5 percent above target.
Despite consistent over-offering by producers in some months, the gap between offered and delivered volumes remains pronounced. The Commission attributed the shortfall primarily to pricing mismatches between upstream producers and domestic refiners.
NUPRC noted that the DCSO framework operates on a “willing buyer, willing seller” basis, which continues to shape transaction outcomes and limit full conversion of allocated volumes into actual supply.
For business and international observers, the data highlights a critical bottleneck in Nigeria’s ambition to boost domestic refining capacity and reduce reliance on imported petroleum products. While crude production and availability are improving, commercial alignment across the value chain remains a key constraint.
The Commission reaffirmed its commitment to improving the effectiveness of the DCSO mechanism. It stated that, leveraging the provisions of the PIA, it will continue refining the framework to enhance transparency, efficiency, and accountability, while ensuring that domestic refineries receive adequate crude supply in line with national energy security objectives.
