Global oil prices climbed sharply on Thursday, with Brent crude settling above the $100 mark, as investor optimism over a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict faded and geopolitical uncertainty deepened.
Brent crude rose by $5.79, or 5.7 per cent, to close at $108.01 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $4.16, or 4.6 per cent, to settle at $94.48 a barrel, rebounding from losses recorded in the previous session.
Market sentiment remained fragile amid conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran over potential negotiations. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff disclosed that Washington had presented Iran with a “15-point action list” aimed at ending the war. However, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, indicated that while the proposal was under review, no discussions had begun on de-escalating the conflict.
A senior Iranian official described the U.S. proposal as “one-sided and unfair,” underscoring the persistent divide between both sides. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Iran had offered to allow 10 oil tankers passage through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture.
Analysts say the lack of clarity around negotiations has heightened market anxiety. “There’s pure confusion and frustration over the veracity of stories coming out of the United States and Iran. Investors are once again rotating into safer assets in an effort to preserve capital,” said Timothy Snyder, chief economist at Matador Economics.
The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that handles roughly a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described the situation as the most significant oil supply disruption on record.
In a related development, President Trump announced a 10-day extension of the pause on planned U.S. strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure. The decision, shared via Truth Social, followed a request from the Iranian government and extends the initial five-day pause that was due to expire on Saturday.
“As per Iranian Government request, I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 days to Monday, April 6, 2026,” Trump said, adding that negotiations were ongoing and progressing positively despite contrary reports.
Beyond energy markets, the ripple effects of the crisis are spreading across the global economy. The World Bank Group has pledged support to vulnerable countries grappling with rising commodity prices and supply chain disruptions linked to the conflict.
In a statement, the bank warned that the impact has extended to fertilisers and other key agricultural inputs, raising concerns about inflation and food security, particularly in import-dependent economies.
It noted that crude oil prices surged nearly 40 per cent between February and March, while LNG prices in Asia jumped by almost two-thirds. Prices of nitrogen-based fertilisers also climbed by close to 50 per cent during the same period.
The World Bank said it is ramping up support through a mix of emergency financing, policy guidance, and private sector interventions aimed at sustaining economic activity and protecting jobs.
“We are working with governments, the private sector, and regional partners to help them navigate this new set of challenges,” the institution said, adding that it is closely monitoring developments and engaging directly with affected countries.
While acknowledging the fluid nature of the crisis, the bank cautioned that prolonged disruptions—particularly to critical infrastructure—could exacerbate economic vulnerabilities in already fragile markets.
With geopolitical tensions showing little sign of easing, analysts warn that oil markets and the broader global economy may remain under sustained pressure in the near term.