The Federal Government finally succumb to pressure over the 15% import tariff that would have added to the economic burden of Nigerians. As soon as it was approved, Nigerians of different backgrounds began to give their perspective in respect of what the implications would be .While some supported it, others were very vehement in their opposition to the policy. This is despite the fact that the government has not stated the date when its implementation would be.
However, by Thursday, the tension that enveloped the industry and by extension Nigerians in general was doused with the statement that came from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority NMDPRA . “The Authority stated that the proposed implementation of the 15 per cent of valorem import duty on imported Premium Motor Spirit and Diesel is no longer in view.”
According to a statement posted on its X handle on Thursday, the Director, Public Affairs Department, NMDPRA, George Ene-Ita, in the midst of other assurances of adequate supply of products by the Authority, he stated: “It should also be noted that the implementation of the 15 per cent ad-valorem import duty on imported Premium Motor Spirit and Diesel is no longer in view.”
The statement said the Authority will continue to closely monitor the supply situation and take appropriate regulatory measures to prevent distruption of supply and distribution of petroleum products across the country, especially during this peak demand period.
Before the major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria ( MEMAN) came to ask the federal government to review its position on the matter, people have stated that the cost would be passed on to consumers. This will be in addition to the burden created by the removal of petrol subsidy and foreign exchange realignment which Nigerians are still struggling with. The policy implimentation would make the price of petrol to be above N 1000 per a litre. Of course, when this happens, transport fares would go up and the prices of food stuff would also follow. Perhaps if this has happened the government would have justified the perception of most Nigerians about it, which is, this government is heartless and insensitive to the plights of the masses.
The Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) in a very calm manner rejected the proposed 15 percent import tariff on petrol (PMS) and diesel (AGO) could push petrol to around ₦998 per litre in Lagos and about ₦1,028 per litre in upcountry markets.
It added that diesel prices could also rise to between ₦1,164 and ₦1,194 per litre, depending on marketing margins, significantly raising fuel prices Executive Secretary, he cautioned that the policy could be regressive and disproportionately impact low-income households and small businesses unless mitigated.
Clement Isong, the association’s executive secretary called for a transparent, evidence-based policy debate, urging that open market pricing computations and end-user prices be published regularly to prevent information asymmetry and market abuse.
According to the MEMAN ES, the new tariff would raise the landed cost of imported products, allowing local refiners to recover costs and margins—a key argument advanced by proponents who maintain that domestic production costs currently exceed import costs.
He added that importers would likely pass the tariffs on to consumers, while domestic refineries
across the country are yet to have the capacity to meet local demand.
He warned that such changes could create competitive distortions, squeezing smaller independent importers out of the market, and stressed the need for active regulatory oversight by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to ensure fair competition and nationwide product availability.
Instead of imposing the products import tariff, Isong outlined alternative and complementary policy measures, including phased or conditional implementation of tariffs tied to independently verified increases in domestic supply.
“Fixed tariff caps (e.g., $20/MT or ₦50/Litre) to limit cost impact on consumers.
“Competitive market framework promoting transparency, standardised pricing disclosures, and periodic publication of international and local refining benchmarks.
“Enhanced anti-smuggling enforcement and customs reforms to prevent tariff evasion.
“Accelerated rehabilitation of NNPC heritage refineries and expansion of modular refineries to boost local PMS supply,” he provided alternatives.
He also urged proactive exchange rate management, noting that “an undervalued exchange rate can make exports cheaper and imports more expensive, functioning as a general form of protection for domestic industries.”
In the same vein, Sola Adebawo, an accomplished business leader and communications expert with extensive experience in the oil and gas industry, stated that the federal government’s decision to impose a 15% ad valorem import duty on Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) and Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) marks a decisive shift in Nigeria’s energy strategy.
Scheduled to take effect from November 21, 2025, the policy, endorsed by President Bola Tinubu, aims to wean the country off its dependence on imported fuel and strengthen domestic refining, especially the newly operational Dangote Refinery.
He stated, it’s an industrial policy at heart, rooted in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), designed to give local producers a fighting chance. But as the start date approaches, Nigerians are asking a blunt question: is the long-term goal of energy self-sufficiency worth the short-term economic pain that’s coming?
The Economic Shockwave
“The 15% duty directly increases the landing cost of fuel. Estimates from the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) show that the tariff alone could add roughly ₦99.72 per litre of petrol. In a market already at the mercy of foreign exchange swings, marketers say this cost will land squarely on consumers.
That could push pump prices beyond the ₦1,000 per litre mark, an unprecedented threshold. For an economy where transport and logistics depend almost entirely on petrol and diesel, the ripple effect will be immediate. Higher fuel costs mean higher prices for everything else: food, building materials, medicines.”
“The inflationary effect could be severe. For a country already struggling with double-digit inflation, this policy, though well-intentioned, risks igniting another round of cost-of-living crises.”
The Social Burden
Over 133 million Nigerians are classified as multidimensionally poor. For most households, purchasing power has already been gutted by the removal of fuel subsidies and the Naira’s steep devaluation.
This new tariff may feel like the final straw. A hawker’s goods will cost more to move. A tailor’s generator will guzzle more expensive fuel. A commuter’s fare may double overnight. These everyday realities add up to a deeper social crisis; one that could easily spill into unrest if people feel abandoned in the transition.
To prevent that, the government will need to roll out visible, credible relief measures; direct cash transfers, subsidised transport, and other forms of support targeted at the most vulnerable groups. Without them, the reform could lose public trust before its benefits materialise.
The Political Calculus
The logic behind the duty is strategic: level the field for local refiners and conserve scarce foreign exchange. It signals seriousness about building an energy-independent Nigeria.
But the timing and optics are delicate. If the public perceives that government is prioritising refinery protection over citizen welfare, political pushback could be fierce. The policy’s success will depend on one critical factor – how fast local refineries, including smaller modular plants, can deliver reliable, affordable output to fill any supply gaps left by reduced imports.
A delay or shortfall could easily turn an ambitious reform into a political and economic flashpoint.
The Bottom Line
The 15% import duty is a bold declaration of intent. It aims to correct decades of distortion and give Nigerian refineries the chance to thrive. But it’s also a dangerous balancing act.
To make it work, the federal government must match industrial ambition with social empathy. That means cushioning the immediate shock for citizens while fast-tracking domestic refining to prove that this sacrifice has a payoff
Without that balance, the quest for energy independence could backfire – trading economic sovereignty for widespread hardship.
Another industry stakeholder while reacting to the suspension, said: “Personally I believe that there was a lot of push back from a lot of quarters, just as there were many in support. As we heard from the international contributors at the recent MEMAN webinar, while not unheard of, value added tax on fuel is usually about 2%. Government in originally proposing such a move must have been thinking about the revenue potential. However, it came across as being a tool to protect local refineries, and to some people, a particular refinery. Be that as it may, I believe the U turn may have been for the following reasons 1) Inadequate consultation within and outside government. 2) Political implications of likely higher pump prices 3) Some consideration towards elections.
Implication; importation will continue until enough product is available through the local refineries. This development will ensure supply is adequate and that prices are moderated since no single entity will have monopoly of supply”.
The policy if implemented could also discourage investors and some may even exit the country completely.
Political consideration played a great role in government taking the latest step. One of the ministers is this government was pointedly told that approving the 15% import tariff for petrol and diesel would be suicider for the APC government as other political parties are waiting for it to capitalize on it. Elections are around the corner and this government would not want to to the problems it already has at hand.
To those who argued in favour of the tariff increase, their position is based on the need to protect local refineries. But the situation on ground did not support it as the refineries are adequately meeting the local needs.
The manufacturers association of Nigeria (MAN) also supported the policy as it stated that in the spirit of Nigeria First, it would help to protect local industries. The association supports the federal government’s approval of a 15% import tariff on petrol and diesel, viewing it as a strategic move to boost local production, protect domestic refiners, and promote the “Made-in-Nigeria” agenda. MAN acknowledges that this policy aims to create a stable environment for local industries, curb unfair competition from dumped products, and secure energy supply. However, the association has also called for transparent implementation and close monitoring to prevent potential price hikes and ensure the benefits reach consumers and businesses.
A renowned industry analyst who has been at the vanguard of protecting the local refineries and preventing the country from being a dumping ground for all manners of petroleum products, simply responded to the suspension like this,”hmmmm, policy abortion. Nigeria”
Another very knowledgeable personality that had superintendent over some of the major refineries in the country, reacted this way:
“ But the pressure of subsidy removal was more serious than this. This is sad. “These marketers will go to any length to distabilise the economy of Nigeria in the quest to protect their cheap profits”
All these considerations put together may have informed the government decision to make u-turn as regards this policy.