Key players across Nigeria’s oil and gas industry have warned that achieving the federal government’s long-standing target of three million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 will require urgent alignment of policy frameworks, capital investment, and digital transformation across the sector.
This consensus emerged at the 26th Oloibiri Lecture Series and Energy Forum (OLEF) in Abuja, organised by the Society of Petroleum Engineers Nigeria Council, where regulators, operators, and policymakers stressed the need for a coordinated, technology-driven approach to unlock production growth and enhance energy security.
The Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act have begun to reposition the upstream sector by restoring investor confidence and unlocking delayed investments.
She highlighted major projects such as Bonga North, Ubeta, and HI, which are expected to attract over $10 billion in Final Investment Decisions (FIDs), noting that clearer rules, transparent processes, and defined timelines have reduced uncertainty and investment risk.
Despite Nigeria’s vast reserves—over 37 billion barrels of crude oil and more than 200 trillion cubic feet of gas—Eyesan observed that output has lagged due to weak execution, stalled investments, and rising costs. She stressed that meeting interim targets of 2 million bpd and 10 billion cubic feet of gas by 2027, and scaling to 3 million bpd by 2030, would require deliberate integration of policy, capital, and technology.
Central to this shift, she noted, is the adoption of digital tools such as real-time data analytics, predictive maintenance, and digital twins, which can improve efficiency, reduce downtime, and optimise asset performance. The commission, she added, is already advancing a digital-first regulatory environment to enhance transparency, speed, and accountability.
Also speaking, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Saidu Mohammed, called for a stronger focus on large-scale, high-impact “Big Bank” projects capable of delivering substantial volumes of oil and gas.
He disclosed plans to launch Project NEXUS, a regulatory transformation initiative aimed at improving efficiency, supporting sustainable energy development, and positioning Nigeria as a leading energy hub in Africa.
At the corporate level, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited signalled a more aggressive push toward digitalisation, particularly through artificial intelligence. Representing Group CEO Bayo Ojulari, Udy Ntia said the company would begin scrutinising partners’ budgets to assess their commitment to AI and digital technologies.
He warned that the industry risks rising costs and declining competitiveness if it fails to move beyond rhetoric on digital transformation. According to him, Nigeria holds decades of valuable geological and production data—much of it still underutilised—which must be harnessed through modern analytics to improve decision-making and boost output.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, also underscored the role of automation and data-driven operations in improving efficiency, reducing downtime, and enhancing reservoir management. He reiterated that Nigeria’s energy strategy is focused on attracting investment while ensuring sustainability, with natural gas playing a central role under the Decade of Gas initiative.
From the operator perspective, Seplat Energy outlined plans to scale production significantly. Its CEO, Roger Brown, disclosed that the company intends to invest about $6 billion to raise output to 500,000 bpd by 2030.
Brown noted that declining production from ageing fields remains a major challenge, estimating that Nigeria must add at least 200,000 bpd just to maintain current levels. Achieving the 3 million bpd target, he said, would require developing an additional 300,000 to 500,000 bpd through both large-scale projects and incremental improvements in existing assets.
In his opening remarks, SPE Nigeria Council Chairman Francis Nwaochei said the forum was designed to move beyond dialogue toward practical solutions, with a focus on bridging funding gaps, addressing regulatory bottlenecks, and accelerating technology adoption.
Overall, stakeholders agreed that Nigeria’s production ambition is achievable—but only if the industry moves swiftly to synchronise policy direction, capital deployment, and digital innovation.
