The Kogi State Governorship election will no doubt be keenly contested among three formidable candidates that also represent the most credible platforms in the political sphere in the state. There is, however, a fourth contestant which primarily is believed by observers to have been planted to spoil the chances of one or two candidates.
One thing is very clear, there may not be a clear winner in the first round and this may necessitate a rerun. Even though it is not very clear how the result will play out there are very strong beliefs that APC may come up third, and if this happens, it would mean that the rerun would be between PDP and SDP candidates.
The reason why there may be a rerun is that ethnicity will play a very prominent role in the outcome of the election. All the candidates are very strong in the senatorial base. Because of this, no one of them would be able to win 25 percent of 14 local governments out of the 21 local governments. The Eastern Senatorial District has 9 local governments, the Central has 5, and the West has seven local governments.
As they all concluded their political rallies on Thursday after which they are not allowed to engage in open campaigns, the attention would now be shifted to one–on–one campaign at the ward levels.
The candidates are Senator Dino Melaye of the People’s Democratic Party PDP, Usman Ododo of the All Progressive Congress (APC) and Jibrin Ajaka of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and Elder Leke Abejide.
Dino Melaye is not new to the political terrain of Kogi State. He was in the House of Representatives and a two-term Senator representing Kogi West Senatorial district. He was one of Nigeria’s few eloquent legislators in the current democratic dispensation.
He has changed parties severally, a common feature among Nigerian politicians in order to achieve their political aspirations.
His platform, PDP is most formidable at the moment in Kogi State and he would be a force to be reckoned with in this contest. PDP has produced governors before in the state. Ibrahim Idris, and Captain Idris Wada, are all from the Kogi East and it is expected that the two former governors would work very hard to ensure that the PDP candidate can do well in their area. If they do, it means the PDP would coast home to victory.
The Kogi West has always supported the East to govern Kogi State. They did it thrice with the late Prince Abubakar Audu, Alhaji Ibrahim Idris and Capt Idris Ichalla Wada. All these Igala sons became Governors through their support.
In a mysterious circumstance, power shifted to the central where it currently resides and would expire by November 11, 2023.
In the spirit of equity, fairness and Justice, it is appropriate that power shifts to the West.
The candidacy of Senator Dino Melaye of the PDP is most formidable in the western zones of the state. He is the most exposed, most educated, and experienced of all of the candidates. All he needs to win convincingly is a corresponding value from the East.
Majority of Okun Yorubas which is the area he comes from and by extension the whole of Kogi West Senatorial District see Dino’s gubernatorial ambition as a collective project for the Senatoral district and not his project and therefore have decided to rally around him. This situation has informed the call on Elder Leke Abejide and Gbenga Braimoh to step down and regard Dino as a collective project for the emancipation of the people of the west senatorial district who have not had the opportunity to produce a governor since the creation of the state.
Dino Melaye no matter the misgiving you may have about him, is still the only candidate that can march the outgoing governor in all areas of political endeavour. He is the most feared by Yahaya Bello who has brought everybody to their knees because of his maladministration.
According to a poll conducted by an independent polling agency, Falcon Alliance in the Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi States for the November 11 Governorship elections draw near the likely favourite for Kogi State is Dino Melaye
In Kogi State, 2,613 persons were selected from across the three Senatorial zones of the State. 85% of the respondents said they have a candidate in mind. Only 15% were still undecided as of the time of the poll.
43.7% of the respondents said they would vote for the PDP candidate, 27.7% said they would vote for the APC candidate, 14.9% said they would vote for the SDP candidate
Based on this study, Senator Dino Melaye of the PDP in the Kogi State Governorship election is set to emerge as Governor of Kogi State, on November 11, 2023. He will win in Kogi West and will still do well in Kogi Central and East
Usman Ododo of the APC
Usman Ododo the APC candidate has been the Auditor General for Local government Affairs who retired all local government expenses and return the balance to the governor in the last 7 and half years
He is alleged to be responsible for local government #7,500 monthly salary payments and also the brain behind percentage salary payments for state civil servants and pensioners.
Though he is popular among his people, he is believed to be a placeholder on the third-term agenda of Yayaha Bello which most people are kicking against.
Kogi believed that voting him in as governor would mean that suffering would continue and because of this his popularity was limited to Kogi Central where Yahaya Bello comes from. Some people alleged that he is from the same ward as the current governor. His association with the governor is the greatest problem he has. He will hold sway in Kogi Central. But he would be challenged by Senator Natasha whose popularity among her people is increasing every day to the advantage of PDP.
Jibrin Ajaka of SDP
The governorship candidate of the Social Democratic Party Muritala Ajaka was a staunch member of the All Progressive Congress before he left the party for SDP where he holds sway currently.
But his style of politics has stoked ethnic dimension which perhaps is what has made him to be largely restricted to his Igala domain. He is not popular in other senatorial districts. He came out with the slogan ‘Igala Agenda” meaning that his people want to retain power perpetually to the detriment of other ethnic groups in the state.
His campaign is more entrenched in ethnic agenda which he has been able to use to lure his people.
There is no doubt he would have the upper hand in Kogi east
LEKE Abejide of ADC
Leke Abejide is from Kogi West, the same senatorial district as Dino. A very good man and a philanthropist. But the most important reason he has offered for contesting is his claim of having support from the ‘Above.’ At any convenient time, he tells people about the level of the fraternity that exists between him and President Bola Tinubu.
His platform, African Democratic Congress only exists in the three local government areas of the state where he comes from. His laying claims that he has added another person to himself from another federal constituency because of his effort or popularity is disputable and cannot hold water. The people of Kabba, Bunu Ijumu Federal Constituency knew what they did to punish PDP
He has helped to pay for the final exams of students in his constituency even though the Federal road to the place has remained a nightmare for several years. He is currently spending the second term in the House of Representatives. Every effort to persuade him to step down for Dino Melaye has failed. He is believed to be sponsored by Bola Ahmed Tinubu or people around him.
Except wonders or miracles happen, it is difficult to see him beyond YagbaWest, Yagba East, and Mopa /Amuro areas of the Kogi West. Even in that place, it can not be said that he would have an absolute advantage over Dino who is also a force to beat in the areas.
