Ayomide Bello
Businesses across Nigeria have identified unreliable electricity supply and insecurity as their most critical operational challenges in March 2026, even as overall confidence in the economy remains positive, according to the latest Business Expectations Survey by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The survey revealed that insufficient power supply ranked as the top constraint, with an index score of 74.5, followed closely by insecurity at 70.9. Other major concerns included high and multiple taxes (69.2), elevated interest rates (66.6), and financial constraints (64.3), all of which continue to weigh heavily on business stability and profitability.
Conducted between March 9 and 13, 2026, the survey covered 1,900 firms across the industrial, services, and agricultural sectors, achieving a response rate of 99.7 per cent. Despite these persistent challenges, businesses maintained a broadly optimistic outlook.
The CBN reported a confidence index of 15.6 points for March, indicating positive sentiment, though slightly lower than the previous month. Looking ahead, optimism is expected to strengthen significantly, with projections rising to 43.9 points over the next six months.
Sectoral analysis showed widespread confidence across all segments of the economy, with agriculture recording the highest optimism for the current period. This positive outlook is expected to persist in both the short and medium term, suggesting continued economic activity.
Regionally, the North-East recorded the strongest business confidence at 39.4 points, while the South-East lagged with a negative sentiment of –5.5 points. However, all regions are projected to experience improved outlooks in the coming months.
Firms also expressed expectations of increased business activity, including higher volumes of orders, improved financial conditions, and better access to credit. These indicators are projected to strengthen further over the next six months.
Employment and expansion plans remain upbeat, with businesses indicating intentions to increase hiring in April 2026. The mining and quarrying sector showed the strongest employment prospects, while agriculture led in expansion plans.
However, structural challenges continue to constrain performance. In addition to power shortages and insecurity, respondents cited high bank charges (63.5), an unfavourable economic climate (62.0), unclear economic laws (61.6), and an unfavourable political environment (60.4) as key impediments.
Access to credit ranked lowest among the listed constraints at 57.7, suggesting that while financing remains an issue, it is relatively less severe compared to other challenges.
The apex bank emphasised the urgency of addressing these structural bottlenecks, noting that improvements in energy supply, security, and the regulatory and financial environment are essential to enhance business productivity and profitability.
On macroeconomic expectations, respondents projected an appreciation of the naira against the US dollar and expressed optimism about borrowing conditions, signalling expectations of a more favourable financing environment.
Meanwhile, average capacity utilisation across sectors stood at 52.5 per cent in March, reflecting moderate use of installed capacity. Manufacturing led with 54.4 per cent, followed by agriculture at 53.9 per cent and construction at 52.7 per cent, while mining and quarrying—including electricity and water supply—recorded 48.9 per cent.
The CBN noted that the survey reflects the views of participating firms and does not necessarily represent the official position of the Bank.