Nigeria fell short of its oil production target by about 16.6 million barrels in January and February 2026, underscoring continued challenges in meeting fiscal benchmarks despite favourable global oil prices.
An analysis of data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission by ThisDay showed that total crude oil and condensate output stood at roughly 92 million barrels over the two-month period, significantly below the projected 108.6 million barrels based on the 1.84 million barrels per day benchmark in the 2026 budget.
Production in January reached 50.5 million barrels but dropped sharply to about 41.6 million barrels in February, reflecting a broad-based decline across key oil terminals. On a daily basis, output averaged 1.63 million barrels per day in January—about 210,000 bpd below target—before falling further to 1.48 million bpd in February, widening the deficit to around 360,000 bpd.
Crude oil output remained the dominant contributor, averaging 1.46 million bpd in January and declining to about 1.31 million bpd in February. Condensate production provided only marginal support, rising slightly from about 116,000 bpd in January to roughly 122,000 bpd in February, but remained insufficient to offset the drop in crude volumes.
The production slump was driven largely by declining output across major export terminals in the Niger Delta. At Qua Iboe, output fell by about 1.5 million barrels between January and February, while Bonny and Forcados terminals recorded declines of roughly 1 million and 1.4 million barrels respectively. Escravos and Brass terminals also posted notable reductions, alongside smaller streams.
The shortfall comes at a time when global oil prices have remained strong, hovering between $110 and $120 per barrel since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February. Typically, higher prices present an opportunity for oil-producing nations to boost revenue through increased output.
However, Nigeria’s inability to ramp up production has limited its capacity to fully benefit from the price rally, leaving potential earnings unrealised. Despite earlier commitments by government officials to push output above 2 million barrels per day, production has remained below expectations.
Industry data suggests that unless output stabilises and improves across key terminals, Nigeria may continue to underperform its budget assumptions, with implications for revenue generation and broader economic stability