Discussions between the French major TotalEnergies and its partners are intensifying with a view to resuming activities on Mozambique LNG. D-Day should be announced very soon.
As we had anticipated (AI of 04/01/22), the France-Mozambique Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCIFM) did indeed hold a breakfast debate on April 5 in the company of the Director General (DG ) Mozambique of TotalEnergies, Maxime Rabilloud, and its distribution director in the country, Fanny Canet (ex-director of distribution in Congo).
The atmosphere overheated by more than a hundred participants, 90% Mozambicans, was further galvanized by the perfect level of Portuguese of Maxime Rabilloud, former head of the group’s activities in Brazil.
Mozambique LNG at the heart of trade
In his address to the hearing, the local boss, however, contented himself with a very general speech on the activities of his group, barely touching on the Cabo Delgado liquefied natural gas (LNG) project. On the other hand, all questions from the audience then focused on Mozambique LNG (two trains of 12.9 million tonnes of gas per year).
Based in Maputo, Rabilloud travels fortnightly to the Afungi area, where the future liquefaction trains will be located. The participants were suspended on a single piece of information: the date of resumption of work stopped since December 2020 due to the particularly degraded security situation due to self-proclaimed Islamist groups (see our soap opera).
Force majeure lifted before the fall?
According to our sources, TotalEnergies has already been holding almost daily virtual meetings for several weeks with members of the CCS joint venture, bringing together Saipem, McDermott International and Chiyoda. CCS is responsible for building the trains. These three partners, like those who will soon be recruited to carry out the heavy work on Afungi (the Italians from CMC di Ravenna, the South Africans from WBHO and the Portuguese from Gabriel Couto or even the Rwandans from NDP), are just waiting for only one thing: the official lifting of force majeure. This provision has allowed the tanker to freeze all its work since April 2021 due to the security situation.
On the day when TotalEnergies communicates to the Mozambican government its intention to abandon force majeure, it will be necessary to ensure that all the contractors can resume work as quickly as possible. If Maxime Rabilloud did not risk giving a precise date during the conference-debate on April 5, it seems that force majeure will indeed be lifted between June and September of this year.
Sustaining the Rwandan military presence
The Rwandan military presence in the province of Cabo Delgado, since July 2021, has restored calm around Afungi. The area is not entirely free of fighting, however, but this has largely diminished, at least in the immediate vicinity of Afungi.
However, TotalEnergies wants to ensure – and this is what seems to be taking shape – that the Rwandan presence is there to last, in order to guarantee the viability of one of the largest investments in the group’s history in Africa. Alone, the Mozambican army is unable to overcome the threat of the local Al Shabab. In addition, the armies of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which arrived at the same time as the Rwandans, are said to be leaving.
