Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is projected to rise by approximately 65% by 2050, reaching nearly 700 million tonnes annually, as countries increasingly rely on natural gas to strengthen energy security and support the transition to lower-carbon energy systems, according to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2026.
The report forecasts sustained long-term growth in LNG consumption despite short-term geopolitical disruptions that have unsettled global energy markets.
Global LNG trade reached 422 million tonnes in 2025 and was expected to expand further in 2026. However, the conflict in the Middle East has temporarily disrupted global supply chains after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important energy transit routes—was severely affected, temporarily restricting around 20% of monthly global LNG supply.
The disruption has driven higher spot LNG prices, particularly in Asia, while creating supply challenges for several importing countries.
Despite these pressures, increased liquefaction capacity in North America, stronger output from existing LNG facilities and slower import growth in parts of Asia have helped cushion the market from more severe shortages.
Shell said global LNG trade in 2026 could remain broadly in line with 2025 volumes if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal during the summer, before resuming stronger growth from 2027 onward.
“The conflict created a system-wide shock with disruption cascading across all segments of the economy, but the LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions,” said Cederic Cremers, President of Integrated Gas at Shell.
“While more investment in both supply and demand infrastructure is needed, the long-term outlook remains strong and LNG will continue to be a stabilising force in the global energy system,” he added.
New Supply Expected by 2030
Shell estimates that approximately 180 million tonnes of new annual LNG production capacity will come online by 2030, significantly improving global gas availability while supporting affordability and expanding access to emerging energy markets.
However, the company cautioned that the benefits of increased supply will depend on importing countries investing in critical infrastructure, including LNG import terminals, regasification facilities and pipeline networks.
South and Southeast Asia are expected to account for roughly 40% of global LNG imports by 2050, driven by rapid economic growth, rising electricity demand and efforts to replace coal with cleaner-burning natural gas.
Meanwhile, more mature markets such as Japan are witnessing new demand from the rapid expansion of energy-intensive data centres supporting artificial intelligence and cloud computing.
Shipping Sector to Drive New Demand
Shell also expects LNG demand from the maritime industry to accelerate significantly as global shipping seeks cleaner fuels to reduce emissions.
The report projects that LNG bunkering—the supply of LNG as marine fuel—will increase seven-fold to 27 million tonnes annually by 2035, exceeding the total volume of LNG imported by India in 2025.
Europe is also expected to remain a major LNG consumer as the region continues reducing reliance on domestic gas production while using natural gas to complement renewable energy sources such as wind and solar.
More Investment Needed
To meet projected global demand, Shell estimates that an additional 200 million tonnes of annual liquefaction capacity will be required during the 2030s and 2040s, beyond projects already under construction.
The company said continued investment across the LNG value chain—including production, transportation, storage and import infrastructure—will be critical to ensuring reliable energy supplies and supporting the global energy transition.
LNG Market Shows Greater Resilience
Although Asian spot LNG prices climbed above $20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the peak of the Middle East conflict, they remained well below the price spikes recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, highlighting improved resilience in the global LNG market.
Long-term supply contracts, which account for around two-thirds of global LNG trade, have also helped shield buyers from extreme price volatility. According to Shell, the average LNG purchase price under long-term agreements stood at approximately $11–12 per MMBtu in May, compared with $7–11 per MMBtu before the latest geopolitical tensions emerged.
The outlook reinforces LNG’s growing role as a strategic fuel for countries seeking to balance energy security, affordability and lower emissions while supporting economic growth and industrial development over the coming decades.