LAGOS — Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports have surged more than seven-fold since 2023, as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reshapes the country’s refined-fuels trade and strengthens its emergence as a regional and international supplier, according to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The EIA said Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2026, compared with an annual average of just 79,000 bpd in 2023.
Of the Q2 2026 shipments, about 350,000 bpd was destined for international markets, up sharply from only 46,000 bpd in 2023.
The US agency attributed the transformation largely to the start-up and subsequent expansion of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which began operations in January 2024 and has significantly increased the domestic availability of refined petroleum products.
“With the increased supply of petroleum products in Nigeria from the country’s largest refinery, imports fell, exports increased, and Nigeria became more self-sufficient in refined petroleum products,” the EIA said in its analysis.
Dangote refinery changes Nigeria’s fuel trade
The development marks a significant reversal of Nigeria’s traditional position in the downstream petroleum market.
For decades, the country exported crude oil while relying heavily on imported petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and other refined products because its domestic refining system operated well below installed capacity.
The EIA said Nigeria’s existing state-owned refineries previously accounted for less than 100,000 bpd of petroleum product shipments by sea to domestic and international destinations.
The sharp increase in shipments began in two distinct phases: first, after the Dangote refinery commenced operations, and then after maintenance and expansion work at the facility was completed in February 2026.
Following the programme, the refinery’s crude distillation capacity increased from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd, further expanding the volume of refined products available for both domestic consumption and export.
The changing global market also provided an additional boost. The EIA noted that disruptions to petroleum product trade through the Strait of Hormuz tightened international supplies, creating additional demand for refined products from alternative suppliers such as Nigeria.
Nigeria’s petroleum imports fall sharply
The expansion of domestic refining has been accompanied by a substantial decline in Nigeria’s dependence on seaborne petroleum product imports.
According to the EIA, Nigeria imported nearly 400,000 bpd of petroleum products in 2023. By the second quarter of 2026, seaborne imports had fallen below 130,000 bpd.
That represents a reduction of more than 270,000 bpd, equivalent to at least 67.5 per cent, in just over three years.
The decline underscores the growing role of domestic refining in meeting Nigeria’s fuel requirements and potentially reducing pressure on foreign exchange demand associated with petroleum product imports.
At the same time, petroleum product movements within Nigeria have increased dramatically.
Domestic fuel distribution expands
The EIA said intra-Nigerian petroleum product shipments averaged 211,000 bpd in Q2 2026, compared with 81,000 bpd in 2025 and only 33,000 bpd in 2023.
The Q2 2026 figure represents an increase of 160,000 bpd, or approximately 485 per cent, from the 2023 level.
The trend suggests that a growing share of Nigeria’s refined petroleum products is now being transported from domestic refining and distribution hubs to other parts of the country rather than being supplied through import terminals.
The EIA specifically linked the increase to the Dangote refinery, noting that the movement of petroleum products to other parts of Nigeria has helped reduce the country’s dependence on imported fuels.
Europe emerges as major market
Nigeria’s growing refining capacity is also changing its role in international petroleum product markets.
Europe has emerged as an increasingly important destination for Nigerian refined fuels. The EIA said Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports to Europe averaged 130,000 bpd in Q2 2026, compared with 40,000 bpd in 2025 and only 15,000 bpd in 2023.
That represents an increase of 115,000 bpd, or approximately 767 per cent, compared with 2023.
Nigeria has also strengthened its position in the African refined-products market. Exports to other African countries reached nearly 120,000 bpd in Q2 2026, compared with 89,000 bpd in 2025.
The figures point to a structural shift in Nigeria’s downstream industry: from a country primarily known for exporting crude oil and importing refined fuels to one increasingly capable of supplying refined petroleum products to domestic, regional and global markets.
Refinery expansion could deepen export potential
The transformation could accelerate if Dangote Group proceeds with its planned expansion of the refinery.
The company has announced plans to add a second 750,000 bpd crude distillation unit by 2028. If completed, the expansion would lift the refinery’s crude distillation capacity to approximately 1.45 million bpd.
Such an expansion would substantially increase Nigeria’s potential refining surplus, creating additional opportunities for exports while strengthening the country’s position as a major petroleum-products hub in Africa.
For Nigeria, the implications extend beyond the downstream oil sector. Greater domestic refining could reduce refined-product import dependence, improve energy security, support petrochemical and logistics activity, deepen regional fuel trade and increase the value captured domestically from the country’s crude oil resources.
The EIA’s latest data therefore highlight a broader shift in Nigeria’s oil economy: the country is increasingly moving from exporting crude and importing fuels toward refining more of its crude domestically and competing in international markets for refined petroleum products.