The All Progressives Congress Presidential Campaign Council (APC-PCC) has challenged former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar to disclose the legal, fiscal and operational framework for his proposed production subsidy on locally refined petrol.

The challenge followed Atiku’s reiteration of his proposal at a press conference in Abuja on Friday, where the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate said government support for locally refined petrol could help reduce pump prices. He also called on President Bola Tinubu to cut the prices of petrol and diesel.

The APC-PCC, in a statement issued by its spokesman, Dele Alake, said the proposal raised questions about its compatibility with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, its potential cost to government and how any subsidy paid to refiners would translate into lower prices for consumers.

APC questions pricing mechanism

The council cited Section 205(1) of the PIA, which provides for wholesale and retail petroleum prices to be determined under unrestricted free-market conditions.

It also referred to a recent statement by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), which said it does not ordinarily fix pump prices or issue administrative pricing templates except where statutory conditions for intervention are met. The regulator said no such market failure had been declared.

Against that background, the APC-PCC asked Atiku to clarify whether refineries receiving government support under his proposal would be required to sell petrol at a prescribed price.

The council argued that if government imposed a mandatory retail price, the legal basis for such intervention would need to be established. If refiners were free to determine their selling prices, it questioned how a subsidy paid to producers would necessarily translate into lower pump prices.

Atiku has previously described his proposal as a production subsidy rather than a return to the former import-based subsidy system. His campaign has said the intervention would be tied to crude production and domestic refining, with government support aimed at reducing production costs.

APC asks Atiku to disclose subsidy cost

The APC-PCC also challenged Atiku to provide details of the fiscal implications of the proposal.

The council said Nigerians should know:

• the proposed subsidy rate;
• the annual spending ceiling;
• the volume of crude oil or petrol covered;
• the source of funding;
• the mechanism for ensuring lower pump prices;
• safeguards against diversion, smuggling and fraudulent claims; and
• whether changes to the PIA would be required.

The APC-PCC estimated that, depending on the size of the proposed discount, the volume covered and whether the intervention applied to an entire crude barrel or only domestically sold petrol, the fiscal exposure could potentially reach between ₦17 trillion and ₦21 trillion annually.

That figure is an estimate advanced by the APC-PCC rather than an independently established cost of Atiku’s proposal. The actual fiscal impact would depend on the final design of the policy, including the subsidy rate, eligible refiners, volumes and duration.

The council also argued that preferentially priced crude for domestic refiners could reduce the value accruing to the Federation and therefore affect revenues available to the federal, state and local governments.

Atiku’s position differs from previous subsidy stance

The APC-PCC also questioned how Atiku’s current proposal fits with his previous public position on petroleum subsidy and downstream deregulation.

Atiku’s spokesman, Paul Ibe, said in August that the former vice-president would restore petrol subsidy if elected in 2027, but that the intervention would be temporary and subsequently phased out. Ibe said the proposed mechanism would be tied to crude production and domestic refining rather than the former subsidy system.

The APC-PCC therefore asked Atiku to explain how the proposed arrangement would avoid the fiscal and market problems associated with Nigeria’s previous subsidy regime.

Deregulation remains central to downstream policy

Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector has undergone a long transition towards market-based pricing, culminating in the framework established by the PIA.

Section 205 of the PIA provides the statutory basis for market-determined wholesale and retail prices, subject to the intervention mechanisms provided by the law.

The debate over Atiku’s proposal therefore centres not only on the amount of government support but also on how such support would interact with the existing regulatory framework.

The APC-PCC said any new intervention should be supported by a clear legal basis, transparent funding mechanism and safeguards that ensure the intended benefit reaches consumers.

Government pushes CNG as alternative

While Atiku is proposing intervention in the cost of locally refined petrol, the Tinubu administration has been pursuing alternative-energy transport, particularly compressed natural gas (CNG) and electric mobility.

The Presidency said more than 120,000 vehicles had been converted to CNG, with more than 400 certified conversion centres and over 90 CNG refuelling stations nationwide as of September 2026.

Tinubu has also directed states to work towards measurable reductions in transportation costs from October 1 through the National Affordable CNG Transit Programme.

The Presidency cited examples of lower fares on CNG and electric transport routes, including Borno, Kaduna, Oyo, Adamawa, Enugu, Plateau, Niger and the Federal Capital Territory.

The government has presented the strategy as an alternative to returning to a broad petrol subsidy, with the President arguing that Nigeria should use its gas resources to reduce exposure to international oil-price volatility.

Domestic refining reshapes subsidy debate

The debate is unfolding as Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity expands, particularly with the Dangote refinery and other emerging facilities.

The APC-PCC cited the Dangote refinery’s stated 650,000 barrels-per-day nameplate capacity and reported higher throughput during performance testing as evidence of the growing domestic refining base. It also referred to the company’s proposed public offering as part of its expansion plans.

The emergence of large-scale domestic refining changes the policy question around petrol pricing because government support could potentially be structured around domestic production rather than imported products.

However, the precise impact on pump prices would depend on the design of any intervention, crude pricing arrangements, refinery economics, market competition and the mechanism used to transfer any savings to consumers.

The APC-PCC said Atiku should therefore publish a detailed policy document and obtain an independent legal and fiscal assessment of the proposal.

The council said the key questions were not simply whether petrol prices should fall, but how the intervention would be funded, authorised under existing law, administered and structured to ensure that consumers—not only refiners—benefit from any government support.